Dear Outsider,
“The Edge… There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over. The others — the living — are those who pushed their control as far as they felt they could handle it, and then pulled back, or slowed down, or did whatever they had to when it came time to choose between Now and Later. But the edge is still Out there.”
― Hunter S. Thompson
Have you ever ridden a motorcycle? It’s incredibly fun. But it can take you to the edge…
Legendary gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson once spent a year with the infamous biker gang Hells Angels. He documented it in a book and some of the experiences were harrowing. After witnessing one of the bikers beating his wife, he reacted with a reasonable observation: “Only a punk beats his wife and dog.”
It was not well received…
The gang beat and stomped him to the point of hospitalization.
Needless to say, Thompson’s depiction of bikers did some damage to the overall image of motorcycle gangs and the lifestyle in particular. But since then, the image of motorcycles has drastically changed. Gone are the days of cranked-up, tattooed maniacs beating women and stabbing one another.
It’s turned into a lifestyle of weekend warriors that enjoy long rides in the sunshine, wind in their hair, and a lady on the back. Where I live in Maryland, I see dozens of bikes go by often — sometimes in the hundreds (which is a little inconvenient when I’m trying to pull out of my roadside driveway). But they are peaceful and plentiful. Last time I was in Dallas, I saw what seemed like thousands of bikes riding down the highway in unison. They completely took over the road for miles. The massive Sturgis bike rally in the Black Hills of South Dakota has brought over 700,000 attendees in recent years.
This trend isn’t going anywhere but up…
According to the Motorcycle Industry Council, 2021 motorcycle sales in the U.S. continued their rise across all segments. Overall motorcycle sales rose 14.2% over 2020 figures and 21.8% over 2019 figures, across all segments.
Enter the single-most iconic motorcycle company of all time: Harley-Davidson.
It is synonymous with bikes, just like Coke is synonymous with cola. It’s just dropped some very impressive fourth-quarter highlights from Barron’s that I’d like to share with you:
- Harley-Davidson earned an adjusted $0.15 a share in the fourth quarter, with motorcycle and related product sales of $816 million.
- Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected Harley-Davidson to report a fourth-quarter loss of $0.34 a share on sales of $669 million. A year earlier, the company posted a loss of $0.44 a share on sales of $531 million.
- The company also posted a strong fiscal year, with motorcycle and related products revenue rising to $4.54 billion and adjusted earnings coming in at $4.21 a share. Analysts were predicting earnings of $3.87 a share on motorcycle revenues of $4.4 billion.
- Consolidated revenues were up 40% for the quarter at $1.02 billion and up 32% in 2021 at $5.3 billion.
- Motorcycle revenue alone rose 71% to $546 million in the fourth quarter, while parts and accessories, general merchandise, and licensing also rose.
- Motorcycle shipments increased 39% to $29.1 million. Retail motorcycle sales grew by 8% in North America during the fourth quarter, but declined across EMEA, Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
This led to a nice bump in the stock and led Morgan Stanley to upgrade it.
“We see a much more positive risk-reward,” said Billy Kovanis, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. “Despite some potential challenges that lie ahead for Harley, we think this valuation is simply too low, especially as we forecast Harley to still grow revenues in 2022 and 2023 by 8% and 3%, respectively.”
Morgan Stanley had forecasted earnings of $4.05 a share by 2023, up from $3.80 in 2021.
The other aspect of Harley-Davison’s business that often goes overlooked is its majority ownership of LiveWire — its electric bike motorcycle which, like most EVs, is becoming far more popular. Harley-Davidson will own about 74% of the electric-vehicle brand after it goes public through a $1.77 billion SPAC merger.
It also acquired StaCyc, which produces electric bikes for children.
Aw, look at that cute little fella.
You’ve probably seen these cute little things pop up around town. They are incredibly popular. They top out at around 11 miles per hour with small battery packs that can be recharged in under an hour. Not only will these tike-bikes bring in extra revenue, they will also pump the brand into kids, getting them into electric bikes and setting them up to buy Harley products in the future. In the first nine months of 2021, Harley-Davidson made $41.3 million from selling StaCyc electric balance bikes. That’s comparable to the $45.2 million in LiveWire electric motorcycle sales.
Both products will continue to sell, alongside the iconic Harley. I don’t see any downside for Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) stock. Plenty of open highway…
It also pays a 1.5% dividend.
Stats:
Market Cap: ~$6.47 billion
52-Week Range: $32.13–$52.06
PE Ratio: ~10.04
EPS: 4.19
Dividend Yield: 1.54%
Ride on, team. I’ll catch you down the road.
Speaking of transportation adventures, I just visited the Miami International Boat Show to vet a new company for my Adventure Capitalist newsletter. I’ll be returning with stock picks, gorgeous nautical video footage, and a video interview with a very special — and famous — guest. You won’t want to miss it.
Get your ticket here.
